Total non-OPEC supply is expected to grow from 57.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2017 to 66.1 mb/d in 2023, an increase of 8.6 mb/d, or an average annual increment of 1.4 mb/d, according to the cartel’s World Oil Outlook 2018.
As such, non-OPEC supply exceeds the rise in demand in this period, which averages an annual 1.2 mb/d, according to OPEC’s estimates.
"The overwhelming majority of additional oil supply (nearly 80 percent) comes from OECD countries, and two-thirds stems from the US. The US alone sees total liquids supply growth of 5.6 mb/d, almost exclusively from tight oil," said the report.
The cartel believes that regionally, the most important contributors to non-OPEC supply growth remain OECD America and Latin America, which add some 6.3 mb/d and 1.5 mb/d, or 74 percent and 17 percent respectively, thus making up 91 percent of incremental medium-term supply.
Eurasia is expected to grow by 0.3 mb/d in the period 2017–2023, while OECD Europe makes a smaller contribution of around 0.2 mb/d, and ‘Other Asia’ declines by 0.1 mb/d, according to the report.
"In terms of individual countries’ contributions to non-OPEC supply growth, the picture is dominated by three, which account for most of the new barrels in the 2017–2023 period. The US, Brazil and Canada are estimated to collectively add 7.9 mb/d of the total medium-term non-OPEC supply growth of 8.6 mb/d," said the cartel.
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